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Spectre of Spring Federal Election Simmers

Monday, 9 January 2023 07:53

By Geoff Waterfield

McMaster professor calls it a slim possibility

Canada's federal parties are playing a game of chess as to whether there'll be a spring federal election.

McMaster University political science professor Peter Graefe tells us with the NDP mindful of how long it will support the government to 2025, the PMO is asking liberal MPs to be financially ready for a vote, in the face of Justin Trudeau's dwindling popularity. 

"Having a Liberal party that's ready to fight an election gives him a lot more negotiating leverage.  And he can probably look at Mr. Singh and say 'Looks like my party's a lot more ready for an election than yours, and I'm calling your bluff'," he says.

He also says the Liberals are keeping an eye on Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who can only get better as an effective leader over time.

Graefe tells us as Trudeau struggles with popularity, he'll have to fight for his slim margin of seats in the GTA, something Poilievre also needs to work harder at.  "Poilievre hasn't exactly lit the world on fire in that area, but it doesn't take that many votes to move us from a Liberal minority to a Conservative minority or even a Conservative majority."

He adds as Trudeau faces down Poilievre, provoking an election could backfire as voters look at Trudeau's record, such as failure to secure a health care deal with the provinces.

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