Heading Towards a Best Case Scenario

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Monday, 20 April 2020 14:27

Health experts suggest the COVID-19 Pandemic has likely peaked in Ontario.

ONTARIO - Health experts suggest the COVID-19 Pandemic has likely peaked in Ontario.

Premier Doug Ford and Health Minister Christine Elliott released the updated COVID-19 modelling today. It shows that the enhanced public health measures, including staying home and physically distancing from each other, are working to contain the spread of the virus and flatten the curve. However, the Chief Medical Officer of Health says emergency measures must remain in place to continue reducing the number of cases and deaths.

Premier Doug Ford says the data shows that the measures we have taken in Ontario is working.

"The modelling clearly demonstrates that we are making progress in our fight against this deadly virus. That's due to the actions of all Ontarians, those who are staying home and practicing physical distancing, and to the heroic efforts of our frontline health care workers. But COVID-19 continues to be a clear and present danger, especially to our seniors and most vulnerable citizens. That is why we must continue to follow the advice of our Chief Medical Officer of Health and stay the course in order to keep people safe and healthy."

Premier Ford says the emergency orders are still in place and the re-opening of the Province will be done gradually.

"We are setting bench marks and targets that we have to hit. I think it would be premature today to throw out industries or areas that we feel will go first, that will come. We are doing our own review, along with municipalities, along with sectors throughout this province, making sure we consolidate with them, collaborate with them. We are still a few days away to roll this out but nothing is going to change until we see the curve continue to flatten, hopefully go down. The number one priority is the health and well being of this Province and I am not going to budge until we see that. To the people getting antsy, I apologize to those people but we will be better off in the long wrong."

The data released today indicates we are heading towards a best case scenario and we could even have a new best case scenario. Ontarians are being warned though to not get complacent, as the numbers would be much higher if we did not follow the guidelines.

Key highlights from the modelling update include:

- The wave of new community spread cases of COVID-19 in Ontario appears to have peaked.

- Outbreaks in long-term care and congregate settings continue to be a major concern.

- Concerted actions are underway to protect vulnerable people in these settings.

- Ontario is now trending toward a best case scenario rather than a worst case scenario and has significantly improved its standing as compared to March modelling.

- The province has avoided a significant surge in cases. Total cumulative cases are forecast to be substantially lower than worst case or even moderate case scenarios projected by previous models.

- While several hundred new cases are identified daily in Ontario, hospitals across the province have not been overwhelmed by the COVID-19 outbreak as a result of capacity planning and the public health measures currently in place. The rate of growth day-over-day is declining.

- To further reduce the number of cases and deaths, it remains critical that Ontarians continue to adhere to public health measures, including staying home and practicing physical distancing if they must go out for essential reasons only.