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Province Releases Latest COVID-19 Modelling

Tuesday, 1 February 2022 at 11:02

By Linda Morgan

Ontario's Science Advisory Table says while the Omicron wave has plateaued in the province, hospital occupancy rates are expected to remain at a "prolonged peak."

The province's Science Advisory Table has released the latest COVID-19 modelling. 

Experts say while the Omicron wave in Ontario has plateaued, hospital occupancy related to the virus is expected to remain at a "prolonged peak."

The modelling shows a wide range of scenarios for hospital admissions, with up to 6,000 possible by mid-March in the worst case scenario.

The most favourable scenario would see ICU numbers decline to under 400 by March, but the worst case scenario suggests it could be around the 900 mark by that point. 

The experts say the new modelling depends in large part on how many people have immunity from recent Omicron infections, but due to limited access to PCR tests, this is largely unknown. 

Data from the province's COVID-19 wastewater signal indicates there may have been between 1.5 and 4 million cases since December 1st, with a peak around January 11th. 

The province loosened COVID-19 restrictions yesterday, capping social gathering limits at 10 people indoors and 25 outdoors, and allowing public settings such as restaurants, movie theatres, gyms, casinos and more to operate at 50 percent capacity. 
 

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