The Province of Ontario released the updated COVID-19 modelling today and it does not look great as they anticipate daily cases will reach 1,000 in the first half of October.
ONTARIO - The Province of Ontario released the updated COVID-19 modelling today and it does not look great.
They anticipate we are going to have around 1,000 cases of the virus per day in the first half of October. Deputy Premier and Health Minister Christine Elliott says everyone has to remain vigilant with the public health measures.
"COVID-19 continues to be a serious threat in our communities, and today's modelling shows the importance of adhering to public health measures. Over the summer we saw how our collective efforts helped slow the transmission of COVID-19, we must not let our guard down now as we head into the cold and flu season. We all need to do our part and continue to follow all public health measures in place to contain and stop the spread of the virus."
Key highlights from the modelling update include:
- Ontario is currently on an upward trajectory similar to what its peer jurisdictions, including Victoria, Australia and Michigan in the United States, have experienced.
- Cases are currently doubling approximately every 10 to 12 days.
- The growth in cases was initially in the 20 to 39 age group but now cases are climbing in all age groups.
- Forecasting suggests that Ontario could be around 1,000 cases per day in the first half of October.
- Intensive Care Unit (ICU) occupancy is currently steady, but it is predicted that admissions will likely rise with an increase in COVID-19 patients being hospitalized.
- Ontario may see between 200 and 300 patients with COVID-19 in ICU beds per day if cases continue to grow.
The Chief Medical Officer of Health says Ontarians must be vigilant in adhering to public health measures to reduce the number of new cases and the spread of the virus. Dr. David Williams says in order to reduce the spread and the number of new cases, it remains critical that Ontarians continue to adhere to public health measures, including avoiding large gatherings, physical distancing and wearing a face covering.
"With the recent rise in cases, we limited private social gatherings and tightened public health measures for businesses and organizations to reduce the transmission in our communities. We wanted to release this modelling to be open about the challenges our province faces, and the important work we all need to do to flatten the curve."