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New Modelling Suggests Cases Will Drop Significantly This Summer

Thursday, 20 May 2021 at 13:41

Today's COVID-19 modelling provided examples of re-opening June 2, re-opening mid June and opening schools and nothing else on June 2.

The Province released new COVID-19 models today. They gave examples of opening the Province on June 2nd, opening the Province on June 16 and an example of opening schools and nothing else on June 2.

In all scenarios, the daily case numbers would be down significantly by the summer. The modelling suggests if we open everything on the 2nd, we would see cases rise a bit and sit above 1,000 each day, before falling to the 500 mark later in the summer. If the Province were to reopen everything in mid June, then our cases would drop significantly and sit at around 1,000 a day by June and then fall to the 300 mark or lower by the summer. If we opened schools and nothing else on June 2, the numbers would fall somewhere in the middle of those two examples.

Dr. Adalsteinn Brown says these are challenging choices but if we are careful and cautious, we can see case numbers come down significantly this summer in Ontario. 

"The wildcard in all of this, is the variants of concern. With a new variant, particularly one that doesn't respond to vaccines and enters the Province from abroad and spreads wildly, we may lose control. With the fewer cases we have, the better we will be able to control new variants as they emerge." 

Hospitalizations and ICU capacity are trending downwards, however they are still just below the peak of the second wave and we continue to have a tremendous strain on the health care system. 

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